Retailers Navigate Economic Uncertainty with Caution, Concern
As new tariffs loom and economic uncertainty lingers, independent hardware retailers are bracing for what could be a volatile stretch of months. From coast to coast, store owners are closely watching vendor pricing, consumer behavior and global trade policy shifts that threaten to ripple through local shelves.
“Economic conditions have definitely had an effect,” says Susan Shaw of Shaw’s Ace Hardware in Oxford, Miss. “We’ve had to raise prices, and my husband and I are absorbing a little of the margin ourselves so it’s not such a hit to our customers. It’s hurting them, and it’s hurting us.”
That sentiment is echoed throughout the channel. Retailers are already seeing signs of a slowdown, especially on discretionary items such as barbecue grills. “There’s been a decrease in customers spending on nonessentials,” says Ben Van Loh of Barry’s Ace in Phoenix. “Grill sales are down, and while essential repair-related items are still moving, we see the impact in day-to-day foot traffic.”
At Christopher’s Hardware locations in Maryland, staff use vendor systems and real-time UPC scans to track pricing shifts and stay competitive—often in quick five-minute bursts throughout the day.
Tom Christopher Sr. of Christopher’s Hardware in Sandy Spring, Md., says that while he hasn’t seen a sharp increase in prices yet, he’s staying vigilant. “They haven’t dramatically crept through, but I’d run out and buy anything not made domestically now,” he adds. “We’re waiting for the increases. You have to keep your retail pricing aligned or your margins get squeezed.”
For many, managing that squeeze is a daily task. Christopher says his store uses vendor pricing systems to stay ahead, but it still takes time. “It might be someone working five to ten minutes here and there just to track which products are imported and how much vendors are adjusting.”
Retailers also report using real-time competitive checks. “I scan UPCs and check where we land compared to Amazon, Home Depot, Lowe’s,” Christopher says. “If we’re within 20 percent, that’s usually good. Sometimes we’re better. Sometimes worse. It depends on the product.”
For retailers tied into co-ops, advance ordering systems provide some buffer. “Ace went to a preorder model years ago, so we’ve already ordered our Christmas stock,” Shaw says. “It’s a done deal. If it gets here, that’s another matter. But this year is already mostly locked in. It’s future years I’m more worried about.”
At Shaw’s Ace Hardware in Oxford, Miss., Susan Shaw says rising costs are being felt across local shelves—with her family absorbing some of the margin to ease the impact on customers.
Suppliers and Retailers Adjust Supply Chains
Some suppliers are adjusting in anticipation of further trade disruptions. According to an article from Licensing International, hardware suppliers are leaning into licensing agreements with domestic manufacturers to help mitigate tariff exposure.
Michael Ritchie, CEO of Arrow Machine & Fabrication Group, recently wrote that his company is working to stabilize pricing through diversified sourcing. “While we cannot control the economic conditions or global politics, we can be transparent, proactive and intentional with our supply chain and partnerships,” he noted in a company statement.
Retailers in the Midwest are echoing similar caution. In an interview with Fox 47 News, a manager at Isthmus Hardware in Wisconsin said the store expects to see tool prices rise soon. “We’re not sure how much yet, but it will impact what we can stock and how we price it.”
The Toledo Blade reports that some Ohio retailers have already seen a rise in appliance and tool costs as a direct result of tariffs. “We’re trying to explain to customers why prices have changed, but not everyone wants to hear about global economics when they just want a drill bit,” said one store manager.
In Georgia, 11Alive News covered rising grill prices, noting that many stores are seeing higher costs from distributors as tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum begin to take effect.
Tariffs Rekindle Concerns Over Lumber Costs
Lumber prices, too, are once again under scrutiny. Erie News Now in Pennsylvania reports concerns among building supply retailers about the effect of tariffs on imported wood, particularly from Canada and South America.
Retailers are preparing for price hikes but uncertain how much of the increase will ultimately be passed on to them—and how much to the customer.
“Will the manufacturers spread the tariffs across global markets, or will the U.S. just absorb it all?” Christopher says. “Nobody knows yet.”
What most agree on is that constant monitoring and adaptability are essential. From scanning price tags to rechecking order quantities, independent retailers continue to walk the line between global complexity and neighborhood service.
“Being on guard is the job now,” Christopher says. “Every week, you’re waiting to see what’s going to change next. You just have to be ready.”
