Q1 2025 Earnings Roundup: Big-Box Trends Independent Retailers Should Watch

As three of the nation’s largest home improvement and rural lifestyle retailers released their Q1 2025 big-box retail earnings trends, a clear picture emerged: while overall sales growth is modest, macroeconomic uncertainty continues to shape customer behavior, product mix, and performance across the board. Home Depot, Lowe’s and Tractor Supply each posted results that highlight spring seasonality, inventory strategy shifts, and the balancing act between price pressures and margin protection.

For independent hardware retailers, these reports offer valuable insight into the challenges and strategies shaping the larger retail environment. Whether it’s adjusting for slower big-ticket purchases, responding to weather-impacted foot traffic, or navigating the ripple effects of new tariffs, the trends among big boxes may signal opportunities for nimble independents to compete on service, local knowledge, and curated inventory.

Home Depot: Flat Comparable Sales but Solid Revenue Growth

Home Depot reported Q1 2025 sales of $39.9 billion, a 9.4 percent increase over the same period last year. However, comparable store sales dipped slightly by 0.3 percent, with U.S. comps up just 0.2 percent. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $3.56, slightly below last year’s $3.67.

CEO Ted Decker credited “continued customer engagement across smaller projects” and strong spring promotional readiness. While big-ticket discretionary purchases appear to be soft, Home Depot’s steady comp performance underscores consumer willingness to invest in minor repairs and seasonal maintenance.

The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance, forecasting 2.8 percent total sales growth and approximately 1 percent comparable sales growth. New store expansion remains modest, with only 13 new locations planned. Gross margins are projected at 33.4 percent.

Lowe’s: Weather Impacts Q1 but Pro Sales Help Cushion Decline

Lowe’s reported a 1.7 percent decline in comparable sales for Q1, with total revenue falling to $20.9 billion from $21.4 billion last year. Diluted earnings per share also dropped slightly to $2.92 from $3.06. The company attributed slower early-quarter traffic to unfavorable weather, though it noted mid-single-digit gains in Pro and online sales as bright spots.

Chairman and CEO Marvin Ellison emphasized the company’s focus on customer service, and Lowe’s continues to prioritize store upgrades, technology investments, and staff development.

Lowe’s also reaffirmed its full-year forecast, projecting flat to 1 percent growth in comp sales and annual EPS in the $12.15 to $12.40 range. The company’s capital allocation remains strong, with $645 million returned to shareholders this quarter via dividends.

Tractor Supply: Modest Sales Growth, Strong Transaction Volumes

Tractor Supply posted Q1 sales of $3.47 billion, a 2.1 percent increase over Q1 2024. While comparable store sales declined 0.9 percent, the drop was attributed to weaker performance in spring seasonal goods. Strong growth in consumables and winter product categories helped offset the decline, and average transaction volume rose 2.1 percent.

Earnings per share fell to $0.34 from $0.37, with net income down 9.5 percent. The company is facing pressure from new tariffs and a shift in consumer spending. Gross margin improved to 36.2 percent thanks to disciplined cost control and supply chain efficiency, but SG&A expenses rose 5.1 percent, partially due to investments in a new distribution center and store expansion.

Tractor Supply updated its full-year outlook in light of economic uncertainty. It now expects net sales to rise between 4 percent and 8 percent and EPS to land between $2.00 and $2.18. The company opened 15 new Tractor Supply stores and continues to invest in its scalable supply chain model.

Takeaways for Independent Retailers

For independents, these results point to a few key takeaways from the Q1 2025 big-box retail earnings trends:

• Spring still matters: Despite erratic weather, all three companies positioned themselves for seasonal opportunities. Independents should be ready to flex promotions and staff for weather-driven spikes.
• Smaller projects are in: Big boxes are seeing more action in repair and maintenance categories versus big-ticket renovations. Independents can thrive by doubling down on expertise and stocking core fix-it products.
• Online and pro matter: Lowe’s pro and online gains show that even in a soft quarter, targeted segments can outperform. Independents with a strong contractor base or streamlined e-commerce may have an edge.
• Tariffs are on everyone’s radar: Especially for Tractor Supply, the reintroduction of tariffs is already altering forecasts. Independents who maintain flexible supply chains or buy local could gain a relative advantage.