Sizzle to Simmer: A Shift in Outdoor Living
As grill ownership remains high, outdoor living departments such as this one at Germantown Hardware in Germantown, Tenn., reflect a shift toward accessories, care products and experience-driven sales.
After years of record demand, the grilling category has entered a steadier phase, creating new opportunities for independent hardware retailers focused on service, accessories and experience.
The grilling and outdoor living category enters 2026 in a different place than it occupied during the pandemic surge: Ownership and participation remain high, but unit demand for big-ticket items has settled into a replacement-and-upgrade cycle, shaped by value-conscious shoppers and more selective discretionary spending.
The strongest evidence for why this category looks past its peak in the wake of the Covid years comes from consumer ownership and purchase timing. Biennial research from the Hearth, Patio & Barbecue Association (HPBA) captured a record runup during 2020-21: 70 percent of U.S. households (and 80 percent of homeowners) owned a grill or smoker, and 38 percent of grill owners had purchased a new one in the prior two years. Of those who had bought most recently, 27 percent said they did so because they were cooking at home more due to the pandemic. That’s classic pull-forward demand: Households bought earlier than they otherwise would have, which naturally lengthens replacement cycles in the ensuing years.
Outdoor kitchens continue to transform backyard living, blending comfort, cooking and gathering in one space.
Industry analysts describe the same pattern from a manufacturing/volume standpoint: IBISWorld points to a 2020-21 spike, then a 2022-23 normalization as pulled-forward purchases tempered year-over-year growth. In parallel, broader home-improvement demand has softened from its “off the charts” era. In the 2024 Market Measure Report from the North American Hardware and Paint Association, Orgill said that after three years of exceptional industry growth (21 percent in 2020, 14 percent in 2021, 9 percent in 2022), 2023 was expected to be flat to slightly down, with the broader home improvement market projected to be about 3 percent lower over the same period. That macro backdrop matters because many grill and outdoor living purchases ride the same discretionary wave as other home-and-yard projects.
Consider the current consumer environment as well, and the story becomes clearer. Circana’s Jan. 16, 2026, retail read points to spending that is steady in dollars, while unit demand has slipped, reflecting household thresholds in the face of persistent price pressure (five weeks ending Jan. 3, 2026: revenue flat, units down 1 percent versus the same period a year earlier). Big-ticket grills, premium patio heaters and outdoor kitchens compete directly with other discretionary priorities, so unit softness can show up even when dollars look stable.
