Primed For Modest Growth — 2026 Paint & Decorating Report

As remodeling activity levels off, paint and decorating remain stable, with disciplined assortments and in-stock performance driving results.

Paint and decorating sit at the intersection of two forces currently shaping the home improvement economy: a large aging housing stock that keeps repair-and-refresh projects flowing, and consumers who continue to weigh spending carefully. For independent hardware store owners, the opportunity remains strong, with the most reliable wins coming from project guidance, in-stock performance and attachment sales rather than any single product trend.

The macro backdrop still favors “improve instead of move.” Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies projects that spending on improvements and maintenance to owner-occupied homes will grow early in 2026 before easing later in the year, with year-over-year growth projected at 2.9 percent early in the year and 1.6 percent by the end. That’s not a boom forecast, but it supports steady traffic for paint, patch, prep and decorating supplies that tie to smaller upgrades and maintenance work.

At the category level, coatings industry data point to a return to modest growth after the volatility of the past several years. In its overview of the U.S. paint and coatings market, the American Coatings Association (ACA) notes that volumes fell from 2022 to 2023 while value rose, with estimates and forecasts calling for growth in both volume and value through 2024 and 2025. In other words, the category has been moving through a period during which pricing and mix mattered, and unit growth began to stabilize.

What that means on the retail floor: Paint is still moving, but customers want simple answers and products that perform as promised. The retailers who win are the ones who help customers answer practical questions quickly: Which finish belongs on this surface, how much product is required, what prep steps determine results and which add-ons prevent rework?

Why Paint Remains a Dependable Department

Paint and decorating hold up because the category serves a wide range of project sizes. The same department supports a landlord repainting a unit, a homeowner patching a hallway, a contractor finishing trim and a customer refreshing patio furniture. In a year when remodel growth is expected to slow later, paint’s breadth matters. Paint projects can be scaled up or down, and that flexibility keeps demand more consistent than categories that rely on major discretionary remodels.

The architectural coatings segment also tracks housing and renovation activity closely. ACA’s industry coverage describes architectural coatings sales as highly correlated with housing and construction conditions, reinforcing why paint remains a reliable bellwether for the home improvement cycle.

What’s Changing: the Shopper, Not the Need

Independent retailers are serving a customer base that includes experienced painters and first-timers. That mix creates a training opportunity for store teams. Signage, quick-reference guidance and “project talk” at the counter often matter as much as the brand on the can. Hardware retailers can treat paint as a consultative category, where the associate’s ability to translate project needs into a shopping list improves close rates and increases basket size.

This is also where independent retailers can differentiate. Big boxes can win on endless aisles. Independents can win on speed, local trust and solutions that prevent a second trip. The goal is fewer stalled decisions and more “complete the project today” baskets.

Some independent retailers are doubling down on paint as a destination rather than just another aisle. At Nelson Ace Hardware in Barre, Vt., owner Bob Nelson carved out a long, narrow 1,200-square-foot building connected to the main store that operates like a store within a store touting its Benjamin Moore identity. The store supports the category with targeted streaming TV advertising and outreach to specific local demographics. The strategy reinforces paint as a defined draw within the broader hardware operation rather than a secondary department.

What Independent Retailers Should Do Next

Start with employee education that focuses on project outcomes. One example: Hartville Hardware in Hartville, Ohio, has built a multiweek onboarding program, including online product knowledge training specific to paint and related categories, to ensure employees are prepared to assist customers effectively. Train staff on the questions that unlock the basket: surface type, interior versus exterior, current condition, desired finish, timeline and tolerance for odor and cleanup. Build a simple cheat sheet for coverage expectations, dry-to-touch ranges and recoat windows based on the brands you carry and make it accessible at the paint counter.

At Madisonville Ace Hardware in Madisonville, Ky., owner Ted Ratzloff says steady gains in the category have come from keeping gallon and five-gallon units consistently stocked, maintaining multiple brands including Benjamin Moore, Magnolia Home and Royal, and investing in dedicated staffing. The store relies on training through Ace University, vendor-led sessions and internal cross-store knowledge sharing to keep associates prepared. This approach has helped the store gain traction with contractor customers while still serving DIY demand.

Paint and decorating in 2026 looks like a category built for steady work. Industry forecasts describe moderate growth and continued correlation with renovation activity, while remodeling indicators point to positive but cooling expansion as the year progresses. For independent hardware store owners, that combination rewards execution: Help customers understand the project, keep the right products in stock and build baskets through smart adjacencies. 

5 Retail Trends to Watch in Paint and Decorating

1. Project bundling drives margin. Paint is rarely a single-item purchase. Prep and protection products are where baskets grow: tape, masking, sanding, patch and repair, caulk, brushes and rollers, liners, trays, drop cloths, surface cleaners and PPE. The operational opportunity is to make those add-ons default rather than optional. Train staff to recommend the next two items before the customer asks. Build adjacencies that match the top project types in your trade area, such as rental turns, exterior refresh, deck and fence maintenance, and quick bathroom upgrades.
2. Right-size assortment beats endless assortment. Paint shoppers punish out-of-stocks. If a customer needs a specific primer, sheen or matching accessory, substitution is often unacceptable. Independents do not need to out-assort big boxes to win; they need to carry the right depth in the items that matter in their market and protect those positions with disciplined replenishment.
3. Mix management matters. Industry forecasts pointing to modest value growth alongside volume changes underscore the importance of mix: premium products, specialty solutions and system selling can lift department performance even when unit growth is moderate. For independent retailers, that can show up in trade-up conversations: stain-blocking primers, scrubbable interior paints, exterior durability claims tied to region and specialty coatings that solve specific problems.
4. Consumers connect with brands. Execution in the paint aisle extends to brand positioning and promotional timing. At Pollock Pines True Value in Pollock Pines, Calif., owner Dave Campbell emphasizes carrying EasyCare, True Value’s line of paint, as a core category, citing its ingredient quality relative to price. Endcaps rotate frequently, supported by the co-op’s bargain-of-the-month program, with promotions timed carefully to local traffic patterns.
5. The “refresh” customer remains a core driver. Harvard’s Joint Center remodeling outlook suggests continued activity in repair and maintenance, even as growth slows later in 2026. Paint and decorating aligns well with that environment because it’s a high-impact upgrade that can be completed quickly. Retailers can merchandise to that reality with endcaps and project callouts that speak to small wins: entryway refresh, trim touch-ups, cabinet updates, porch and patio maintenance, and seasonal exterior preparation.