Home Depot, Lowe’s and Tractor Supply Post Modest Q3 Gains as Market Stays Soft
Independent hardware retailers tracking big-box performance received a clearer picture of the home improvement landscape as Home Depot, Lowe’s and Tractor Supply recently released their third-quarter earnings reports. The three major chains posted modest sales gains but described a market shaped by consumer caution, soft discretionary spending and operational discipline heading into the final stretch of 2025. Their results offer context for independent hardware retailers navigating the same housing-driven drag on project spending, the same pressure on seasonal categories and the same competition for pro customers.
Big-box Q3 results show a market defined by caution, slow demand and selective category strength. Home Depot, Lowe’s and Tractor Supply all reported year-over-year sales increases, but the gains largely came from acquisitions, strong consumables and category-specific lifts—not broad improvements in discretionary home improvement demand. For independent hardware retailers, the quarter reinforces the challenge of delayed projects and softer big-ticket activity across the industry.
Home Depot posted slight comp-sales growth, but missed expectations because of weak storm activity and housing pressure. Third-quarter sales reached $41.4 billion, up 2.8 percent, including about $900 million from its GMS acquisition. Comparable sales increased 0.2 percent overall and 0.1 percent in the United States. Net earnings held steady at $3.6 billion. In the company’s press release, Home Depot CEO Ted Decker cited a lack of major storms, ongoing consumer uncertainty and continued housing pressure as key factors limiting demand. The company lowered full-year expectations, projecting slightly positive comps and a 6 percent EPS decline. Home Depot plans about 12 new stores this year and expects GMS to contribute about $2 billion in annual sales.
Lowe’s grew comps through digital gains, pro momentum and home services, but overall demand remains subdued. Total sales rose to $20.8 billion from $20.2 billion last year, while comparable sales increased 0.4 percent on the strength of 11.4 percent online growth, double-digit home services gains and continued pro activity. Adjusted diluted EPS climbed to $3.06, up nearly 6 percent. In the company’s press release, CEO Marvin Ellison pointed to early contributions from the newly closed Foundation Building Materials acquisition, which expands the company’s reach with contractors and builders. Lowe’s updated its full-year outlook to reflect a flat comparable-sales environment and ongoing macro uncertainty.
Tractor Supply delivered the strongest growth, driven by consumables, strong traffic and extended seasonal strength. Net sales increased 7.2 percent to $3.72 billion, with comparable store sales up 3.9 percent. Transaction count grew 2.7 percent, and average ticket rose 1.2 percent. Seasonal categories performed well, and core consumables—its C.U.E. mix—continued to drive steady momentum. Gross margin improved to 37.4 percent due to effective cost management despite tariff and freight pressure. In a company press release, CEO Hal Lawton cited market share gains, disciplined operations and progress on the company’s Life Out Here 2030 strategy.
Independent retailers should note the industry’s emphasis on efficiency, pro competition and the resilience of consumables. Home Depot and Lowe’s both reported softer big-ticket demand and highlighted the need for operational discipline—a signal many independent hardware store owners already see in their stores. Both chains are intensifying their efforts with contractors and builders, supported by acquisitions and expanded service models. Tractor Supply’s results highlight the relative stability of consumable and necessity-driven categories, an area where independents often compete effectively.
Across the board, Q3 reflected stability rather than recovery, setting the tone for a holiday season shaped by execution rather than expectation. With consumer hesitancy lingering and housing-related pressure showing little sign of easing, big-box results point to a cautious finish to 2025. Independents navigating the same macro environment will find familiar themes: disciplined inventory management, category selectivity and competitive positioning with pro customers as essential tools for the months ahead.
